Dinamika Makroekonomi, Peran UMKM, dan Pendidikan terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran di Provinsi Jambi

Abstract

Unemployment remains a critical challenge in regional economic development within Jambi Province. This study aims to analyze the effects of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), the number of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), and education levels on the unemployment rate in Jambi Province for the 2015–2024 period. The research employs a quantitative descriptive approach with Multiple Linear Regression analysis using secondary time-series data sourced from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and the Department of Cooperatives and MSMEs of Jambi Province. The empirical findings indicate that simultaneously (F-Test), GRDP, the number of MSMEs, and education significantly influence the unemployment rate, accounting for an R-Square value of 62.3%. Partially (t-Test), the GRDP variable exhibits a positive but non-significant coefficient, suggesting a capital-intensive economic growth pattern. The number of MSMEs shows a negative direction, contributing to labor absorption, though it is not statistically significant at the 5% alpha level. Meanwhile, the education variable indicates a potential structural mismatch within the local labor market. This study recommends the urgency of enhancing MSME capacity through digitalization and synchronizing educational curricula with the real needs of local industries in Jambi Province to accelerate the reduction of the unemployment rate.