Penerapan Metode Forecasting Dalam Menentukan Persediaan Kopi Susu Pada Usaha Mikro Kecil Menengah Dalam Hal  Ini Sir Coffeehouse Bekasi

Anisah Anisah; Hadita Hadita

doi:10.30640/jmcbus.v2i1.2070

Authors

Anisah Anisah Universitas Bhayangkara Jakarta Raya
Hadita Hadita Universitas Bhayangkara Jakarta Raya

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30640/jmcbus.v2i1.2070

Keywords:

Weighted Moving Average (WMA), Double Exponential Smoothing, Forecasting, Inventory, Error

Abstract

By using mathematical calculations, a situation can be predicted in the future through forecasting or forecasting. Companies often use this forecasting method to calculate future conditions, or to make predictions or predict future conditions that are still unknown for the company's progress. Forecasting can be implemented in various ways. Two methods are used in one example: double exponential smoothing and weighted moving average (WMA). This technique provides future forecasts by dissecting past information and applying different weights to the remaining information. Predicted proportions can also be used to improve quality of life. When a problem arises, it is almost impossible to solve or understand without first recognizing the problem. This forecasting method can be used in various fields, including forecasting at coffee shops or Sir Coffeehouse coffee shops regarding the production of milk coffee drinks. Sir Coffeehouse is a coffee shop or coffee shop that sells various kinds of coffee drinks. Until now, sales and data processing for Sir Coffeehouse Coffee Shop is still manual, which of course results in less efficient management. Because salespeople often have difficulty predicting how many products will be available in the coming month, the number of sales transactions will affect inventory. Of course, by obtaining forecasting data for future coffee drinks, it can provide an overview of future work steps and boost company productivity. In this research, taking coffee milk drink stamps for the manual prediction estimation process, of course, must dominate abilities, especially in the numerical field. The test results of the system created were used to predict coffee sales with a Weighted Moving Average (WMA) of 62 and a Mean Square Error (MSE) of 0.08, while using Double Exponential Smoothing of 51.1 and a Mean Square Error of -38.0. This strategy provides stock determination for the following time period. The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) technique is superior because it has a lower error value.

References

Hamdan, H., Ali, H., Mahaputra, M. R., Marlapa, E., Maharani, A., Mahaputra, M. R., Saputra, E. B., Satriawan, N., Nofrialdi, R., Setiawan, H. A., Yandi, A., Gupron, G., & Saputra, F. (2023). INDONESIAN ONLINE SHOPPING PERSPECTIVE: RELATIONSHIP E-SATISFACTION, E-COMMITMENT, E-WOM AND E-REPURCHASE INTENTION. International Journal of Professional Business Review, 8(9), 1–26.

Hanggara, F. D., Industri, J. T., Teknik, F., Universal, U., & Riau, K. (2021). Forecasting Car Demand in Indonesia with Moving Average Method. 1, 1–6.

Indah, D. R., & Rahmadani, E. (2018). Sistem Forecasting Perencanaan Produksi dengan Metode Single Eksponensial Smoothing pada Keripik Singkong Srikandi Di Kota Langsa. Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi Akuntansi (Jensi), 2(1), 10–18.

Iwan, Rahayu, A. (2018). Analisa Peramalan Permintaan Mobil Mitsubishi Expander. Issn, 18(2).

Jumawan, J., Saputra, F., & Prabowo, P. B. (2023). Determinasi Pelatihan Florist dan Kualitas Pelayanan Kewirausahaan Pada Kejutbypugo Kota Bekasi. OPTIMAL: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Manajemen, 3(4), 216–227.

Khaira, N., Saputra, F., & Syarief, F. (2022). Pengaruh Persepsi Harga dan Kualitas Pelayanan terhadap Keputusan Pembelian di Kafe Sudut Halaman. JAMAN: Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Manajemen Bisnis, 2(3), 24–30.

Kurniawan, M. R., Dedy Irawan, J., & Santi Wahyuni, F. (2021). Forecasting Penjualan Kopi Dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing Berbasis Web (Studi Kasus Kedai Psycoffee). JATI (Jurnal Mahasiswa Teknik Informatika), 5(2), 517–525. https://doi.org/10.36040/jati.v5i2.3739

Latif, M., & Herdiansyah, R. (2022). Peramalan Persediaan Barang Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving Average dan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing. Journal of Information System Research (JOSH), 3(2), 137–142. https://doi.org/10.47065/josh.v3i2.1232

Mujiono. (2017). Jurnal ekono logi ISSN 2355-6099 195. Penerapan Analisis Swot Dan Manajemen Mutu Terpadu (Tqm) Dalam Penetapan Strategi Pemasaran Toserba, 4(April), 195–202.

Nasution, A. (2018). Forecasting Produksi Karet Menggunakan. 9986(September).

Nofrialdi, R., Saputra, E. B., & Saputra, F. (2023). Pengaruh Internet of Things: Analisis Efektivitas Kerja , Perilaku Individu dan Supply Chain. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Pemasaran Digital (JMPD), 1(1), 1–13. https://dinastires.org/JPKN/article/view/111/104

Pradibta, H., & Al Saffa, A. U. N. (2016). PENGEMBANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI PENJUALAN DAN PERAMALAN JUAL BELI MENGGUNAKAN METODE WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE (Studi Kasus Toko Emas Maju Sari Kota Malang). Jurnal Informatika Polinema, 2(3), 138. https://doi.org/10.33795/jip.v2i3.72

Saputra, F., Mahaputra, M. R., & Maharani, A. (2023). Pengaruh Jiwa Kewirausahaan terhadap Motivasi dan Minat Berwirausaha (Literature Review). Jurnal Kewirausahaan Dan Multi Talenta (JKMT), 1(1), 42–53.

Saputra, F., & Sumantyo, F. D. S. (2023). Pengaruh Sistem Informasi Manajemen: Kepuasan Konsumen dan Keputusan Pembelian Tiket MPL Mobile Legend di Aplikasi Blibli. com. Cuan: Jurnal Kewirausahaan Dan Manajemen Bisnis, 1(2), 98–105.

Soesanto, E., Saputra, F., Puspitasari, D., & Danaya, B. P. (2023a). Analisis Sistem Manajemen Sekuriti: K3 dan Beban Kerja di PT . XYZ. Jurnal Riset Dan Inovasi Manajemen, 1(2), 139–150.

Soesanto, E., Saputra, F., Puspitasari, D., & Danaya, B. P. (2023b). Determinasi Sistem Manajemen Sekuriti: Analisis Objek Vital , Pengamanan File dan Pengamanan Cyber pada Yayasan Siber Publisher. Jurnal Ilmu Multidisiplin, 2(1), 23–29.

Solikin, I., & Hardini, S. (2019). Aplikasi Forecasting Stok Barang Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving Average (WMA) pada Metrojaya Komputer. Jurnal Informatika: Jurnal Pengembangan IT, 4(2), 100–105. https://doi.org/10.30591/jpit.v4i2.1373

Sutanto, P., Setiawan, A., & Setiabudi, D. H. (2017). Perancangan Sistem Forecasting di Perusahaan Kayu UD . 3G dengan Metode ARIMA. Jurnal Infra, 05(01), 325–330.

Widjanarko, W., Hadita, H., Saputra, F., & Cahyanto, Y. A. D. (2023). Determinasi Kemudahan Akses Informasi Bagi Keputusan Investasi Gen Z. Digital Bisnis: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmu Manajemen Dan E-Commerce, 2(4), 248–264.

Widjanarko, W., Saputra, F., & Hadita. (2023). Analisis Keputusan Pembelian dan Loyalitas Pelanggan terhadap Voucher Gratis Ongkos Kirim E-Commerce Shopee Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen Terapan, 4(5), 678–685.