Pengaruh Laju Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi serta Kebijakan Koefisien Alpha terhadap Kenaikan Upah Pasca Terbitnya PP No 49/2025 dan Keputusan Gubernur Jawa Barat di Kabupaten Purwakarta

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation and economic growth on the Regency Minimum Wage (UMK) in Purwakarta Regency and to simulate the impact of the latest government regulation, Government Regulation Number 49 of 2025. The research employs a quantitative approach with a causal associative design, supported by descriptive analysis and policy simulation. The data used are secondary time series data from 2015 to 2025 obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and related institutions. Data analysis techniques include multiple linear regression and policy simulation modeling. The results indicate that simultaneously, inflation and economic growth do not have a significant effect on the UMK in Purwakarta Regency, as shown by a significance value of 0.685 (>0.05) and a coefficient of determination of 0.090. Partially, both variables also show no significant effect, suggesting that minimum wage determination is more influenced by policy factors and industrial relations dynamics rather than macroeconomic variables. Meanwhile, the policy simulation results reveal that changes in the alpha coefficient (α) in Government Regulation No. 49 of 2025 significantly affect the magnitude of UMK increases, where a higher α value leads to a greater contribution of economic growth to wages. This study highlights the crucial role of policy in moderating the relationship between economic variables and labor welfare.