Studi Kelayakan Bisnis dan Risiko Ekspansi Ritel Modern: Studi pada Alfamart dengan Pendekatan Markets Feasibility dan Risk Assessment

Abstract

The aggressive expansion strategies of modern retail in post-pandemic Indonesia have necessitated an urgent evaluation framework that integrates market feasibility with comprehensive risk assessment. This study aims to analyze the market feasibility of Alfamart’s outlet expansion, identify material business risks, and formulate adaptive mitigation strategies. Employing a quantitative descriptive-associative approach, panel data for the 2015–2024 period were analyzed using multiple linear regression to examine the impact of store count (STORE) and digital transformation (DIGITAL) on Return on Assets (ROA). Furthermore, the House of Risk (HOR) framework was utilized for risk prioritization. The regression analysis reveals that both variables exert a positive and significant influence on ROA (R^2 = 0.916; p < 0.01), underscoring that physical expansion and digitalization are critical determinants of profitability within a duopolistic market structure. Concurrently, the HOR analysis identified lax zoning regulations (ARP 696), non-digitalized supply chains (ARP 648), and insufficient investment in cybersecurity (ARP 588) as the three most dominant risk agents. The integration of these findings proposes an evaluative model that prioritizes mitigations based on zoning intelligence systems, digital literacy training, and zero-trust architecture. This research contributes to the strategic retail management literature by bridging the gap between market feasibility and the ISO 31000/HOR frameworks, while providing practical recommendations for modern retailers to transition from quantity-based growth toward resilience-based growth.