Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi dan Efektivitas Pemerintah terhadap Perdagangan Internasional Indonesia di Tengah Ketidakpastian Global

Anisa  Putri; Taosige  Wau; Miftakhul Choiri

doi:10.30640/inisiatif.v5i3.6734

Authors

Anisa Putri Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Kalijaga Yogyakarta
Taosige Wau Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Kalijaga Yogyakarta
Miftakhul Choiri Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Kalijaga Yogyakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30640/inisiatif.v5i3.6734

Keywords:

Exchange Rate, Government Effectiveness, Inflation, International Trade, Trade Openness

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of exchange rates, inflation, trade openness, and government effectiveness on Indonesia’s international trade amid global economic uncertainty. The study employs a quantitative approach using time series data from 2001-2025 and is analyzed using multiple linear regression. The results show that all variables simultaneously have a significant effect on international trade. Partially, inflation and government effectiveness have a significant effect, while exchange rates and trade openness do not have a significant effect. High inflation is proven to reduce international trade performance, while government effectiveness shows a negative relationship with trade activities. The insignificant effect of exchange rates and trade openness indicates that these variables have not become the main determinants of Indonesia’s international trade during the research period. These findings highlight the importance of macroeconomic stability and institutional quality in facing global uncertainty. However, this study is still limited by the use of a linear regression model and aggregate time series data, which may not fully capture the overall dynamics of international trade.

References

Abbas, S. K., Bhattacharya, P. S., & Sgro, P. (2016). Kurva Phillips Keynesian baru: Pembaruan tentang kemajuan empiris terkini. International Review of Economics & Finance, 43, 378–403https://doi.org/10.1016/J.IREF.2016.01.003

Abdullah, F. D., Saleh, C., Rasyid, F. A., & Witro, D. (2023). Analisis perdagangan internasional melalui model Heckscher-Ohlin. Al Ushuliy: Jurnal Mahasiswa Syariah dan Hukum, 2(2), 249–259. https://doi.org/10.31958/ALUSHULIY.V2I2.11483

Adelakun, O., Lekena, T., Motampane, M., Mots’oanyane, L., & Nyathi, B. (2025). The effects of inflation on international trade dynamics in South Africa. Journal Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 9(3), 159–170.

Adelia Safitri, D., Anggraini, D., Hutahuruk, M. S., & Batubara, M. (2024). Analisis pengaruh kebijakan moneter terhadap perdagangan internasional Indonesia. Jurnal Tinjauan Ekonomi, 3(3). https://doi.org/10.56709/MRJ.V3I3.351

Ahmad, T. (2022). A case of Pakistan investigating the relationship between inflation and economic growth. Acta Pedagogia Asiana, 1(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.53623/APGA.V1I1

Aizenman, J., Ho, S.-H., Huynh, L. D. T., Saadaoui, J., & Uddin, G. S. (2024). Nilai tukar riil dan cadangan devisa internasional di era integrasi keuangan. Journal of International Money and Finance, 141, 103014. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JIMONFIN.2024.103014

Ali, N. M. W., et al. (2025). Pengaruh modal intelektual, inflasi, dan dana pihak ketiga terhadap manajemen laba: Studi empiris pada Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Dharma Ekonomi, 32(2). https://doi.org/10.59725/de.v32i2.364

Amna Intisar, R., Yaseen, M. R., Kousar, R., Usman, M., & Makhdum, M. S. A. (2020). Dampak keterbukaan perdagangan dan modal manusia terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi: Investigasi komparatif negara-negara Asia. Sustainability, 12(7), 2930. https://doi.org/10.3390/Su12072930

Annisa, F., Ibrahim, H., & Kunci, K. (2023). Pengaruh perdagangan internasional dan investasi terhadap kesejahteraan ekonomi Indonesia serta negara ASEAN. Jurnal Riset Manajemen, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.54066/JURMA.V2I1

Annisa, T., Yusmania, T. R., Kirani, V. A., & Rizki, N. (2024). Hubungan antara nilai tukar dan volume perdagangan internasional. Setara: Jurnal Ekonomi, Akuntansi dan Manajemen, 3(1), 416–421. https://doi.org/10.61994/Equivalent.V3I1.718

Ardi, B. K., et al. (2025). Pengaruh upah minimum kabupaten/kota (UMK), pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan inflasi terhadap pengangguran terbuka di Jawa Tengah tahun 2019–2023. Dharma Ekonomi, 32(1). https://doi.org/10.59725/de.v32i1.307

Ariani, N., & Amaliah, I. (2023). Pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi, dan nilai tukar terhadap neraca perdagangan Indonesia–China. Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 3(2). https://doi.org/10.29313/JRIEB.V3I2.2882

Asteriou, D., Masatci, K., & Pılbeam, K. (2016). Volatilitas nilai tukar dan perdagangan internasional: Bukti internasional dari negara-negara MINT. Journal of Economic Modelling, 58, 133–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECONMOD.2016.05.006

Auboin, M., & Ruta, M. (2012). The relationship between exchange rates and international trade. World Trade Review, 12, 577–605. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474745613000025

Ćorić, B., & Pugh, G. (2010). Pengaruh variabilitas nilai tukar terhadap perdagangan internasional. Journal of Applied Economics, 42, 2631–2644. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840801964500

Demir, F., & Razmi, A. (2022). The real exchange rate and development theory. Journal of Economic Surveys, 36, 386–428. https://doi.org/10.1111/JOES.12418

Dewi, N., & Soebagyo, M. (2018). Pengaruh PDB, inflasi, dan nilai tukar terhadap ekspor dan impor di Indonesia. Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta Repository.

Di Giovanni, J., Kalemli-Özcan, S., Silva, A., & Yıldırım, M. A. (2022). Global supply chain pressures, international trade, and inflation. NBER Working Paper No. 30240. http://www.nber.org/papers/w30240

Gagnon, J., & Sarsenbayev, M. (2023). Dolar tidak begitu dominan. Journal of International Money and Finance, 137, 102889. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JIMONFIN.2023.102889

Hassan, R., Loualiche, E., Pecora, A., & Ward, C. (2021). Perdagangan internasional dan risiko dalam kurs. Journal of International Finance, 34(2).

Hesniati, H., Henliyanto, H., Hartoko, R., Kordinata, E., Alicia, A., & Febriyanti, D. (2022). Analisis pengaruh impor, ekspor dan inflasi terhadap cadangan devisa. Makro: Jurnal Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan, 7(1). https://doi.org/10.53712/JMM.V7I1.1494

Hidayah, A. P., Dini, M., & Sawarti. (2024). Analisis dampak globalisasi terhadap perdagangan internasional. JEI: Jurnal Ekonomi Islam, 2(2), 25–30. https://doi.org/10.56184/JEIJOURNAL.V2I2.411

Hotsawadi, H., & Gea, I. (2025). Menembus pasar global. Jurnal Ekonomi Sakti, 14(1). https://doi.org/10.36272/JES.V14I1.403

Houck, J. P. (1979). Inflation and international trade. University of Minnesota. https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/17294

Ifa, K., & Yahdi, M. (2021). Trade openness and economic growth in Indonesia. Wiga Journal, 10(2), 163–170. https://doi.org/10.30741/WIGA.V10I2.599

Khmeleva, G., & Guseva, M. (2024). International trade and economic relations. RUDN Journal of Economics, 32(1). https://doi.org/10.22363/2313-2329-2024-32-1-113-134

Krugman, P., & Obstfeld, M. (1987). International economics: Theory and policy.

Kunroo, M. H., & Ahmad, I. (2023). Heckscher-Ohlin theory. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 21, 151–174. https://doi.org/10.1007/S40953-022-00330-X

Lal, M., Kumar, S., Pandey, D., Rai, V. K., & Lim, W. M. (2023). Volatilitas nilai tukar dan perdagangan internasional. Journal of Business Research, 167, 114156. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JBUSRES.2023.114156

Nabillah, R. A., et al. (2024). Analisis pengaruh ekspor, nilai tukar, dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia tahun 1993–2023. Jurnal Manajemen dan Ekonomi Bisnis, 4(3). https://doi.org/10.55606/cemerlang.v4i3.3007

Pertiwi, R. S., Herianingrum, S., Mustofa, M. U. A., & Muhammad, M. (2019). Studi empiris government effectiveness dan trade openness terhadap perdagangan internasional. Jurnal Ekonomi, 24(3), 351–368. https://doi.org/10.24912/je.v24i3.598

Rachman, M. A. (2023). Analisis keterbukaan ekonomi dan ekspor di Indonesia: Studi empiris pada dampak Covid-19 dan peperangan Rusia-Ukraina. BISECER (Kewirausahaan Ekonomi Bisnis), 6(1), 38. https://doi.org/10.61689/bisecer.v6i1.423

Rajput, S. K. O., Ghumro, N. H., & Anjum, N. (2019). Apakah perubahan nilai tukar memiliki efek simetris atau asimetris terhadap integrasi perdagangan internasional? Annals of Financial Economics, 14(03), 1950013. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010495219500131

Rakeen, M., Farhan, M., & Alvinsyah, A. (2024). Dinamika perdagangan internasional dan dampaknya terhadap perekonomian global. JEI: Jurnal Ekonomi Islam, 2(2), 38–44. https://doi.org/10.56184/jeijournal.v2i2.422

Rozak, A., Minhajuddin, M., Jerfiani, D., & Zainol, F. A. (2025). Integrating Islamic macroeconomic principles in analyzing labor and inflation as determinants of Indonesia’s international trade. Finansha: Journal of Sharia Financial Management, 6(2), 130–142. https://doi.org/10.15575/fjsfm.v6i2

Salim, T., & Soelistyo, A. (2024). Analisis nilai tukar di era ketidakpastian perekonomian. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 14(1), 82–94. https://doi.org/10.12928/optimum.v14i1.9750

Simanjorang, F., et al. (2023). Analisis efek globalisasi terhadap perdagangan internasional negara Indonesia. Jurnal Kendali Akuntansi, 1(3). https://doi.org/10.59581/jka-widyakarya.v1i3.508

Stockman, A. (1981). Effects of inflation on the pattern of international trade. https://doi.org/10.3386/w

Tahir, M., Ali, N. O., Naseem, I., & Burki, U. (2023). Keterbukaan perdagangan dan tingkat inflasi di Tiongkok: Bukti empiris dari data deret waktu. Jurnal Ekonomi, 11(10), 240. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11100240

Windari, et al. (2024). Determinan ekspor di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi, Bisnis dan Manajemen (EBISMEN), 3(4). https://doi.org/10.58192/ebismen.v3i4.2630