Analisis Pengaruh PDRB, UMP, Investasi, Pengangguran dan Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di Indonesia: Studi Data Panel 2015-2023

Authors

  • Alfina Putri Satyatama Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30640/inisiatif.v4i2.4014

Keywords:

GRDP, Investment, Minimum Wage

Abstract

Poverty is a multi-layered and complex economic problem in Indonesia. This study aims to explore the factors that influence the poverty rate in 34 Indonesian provinces in the period from 2015 to 2023 by utilizing the static panel regression method. The independent variables analyzed include Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), Provincial Minimum Wage (UMP), investment, and the open unemployment rate. Secondary data was collected from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and other relevant sources. The findings of this study show that GRDP and investment have a negative and significant impact on the poverty rate, indicating that economic growth and increased investment can serve to reduce poverty rates. In contrast, the open unemployment rate shows a positive relationship with poverty, indicating that increased unemployment worsens the poverty situation. Meanwhile, the results of the minimum wage vary in different provinces, depending on the dynamics of the labor market and local economic policies. The implications of this study emphasize the importance of developing policies that support inclusive economic growth, increasing investment that has a direct impact on job creation, and strategies to reduce unemployment rates to tackle poverty more effectively.

 

References

Abdillah, L., & Faridatussalam, S. R. (2023). Analisis Tingkat Kemiskinan di Indonesia Periode 2016-2020. CAKRAWALA, 6(3), 485–493.

Addae-Korankye, A. (2019). Theories of Poverty: A Critical Review. Journal of Poverty, Investment and Development, 48, 55–62. https://doi.org/10.7176/JPID

Ardian, R., Yulmardi, & Bhakti, A. (2021). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia, dan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di Provinsi Jambi. Jurnal Ekonomi Aktual, 1(1), 23–34. https://doi.org/10.53867/jea.v1i1.3

Arliansyah, Fuadi, Wardhiah, Pasarela, H., & Juanda, R. (2024). Socius: Jurnal Penelitian Ilmu-Ilmu Sosial Kebijakan Pengentasan Kemiskinan di Indonesia: Sebuah Fakta di Indonesia. Socius: Jurnal Penelitian Ilmu-Ilmu Sosial, 2(1), 73–79. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13314063

Badan Pusat Statistik. (2024). Profil Kemiskinan di Indonesia Maret 2024.

Barika, Ekaputri, R. A., Septriani, & Efendi. (2021). Analisis Struktur Ekonomi di Sumatera. PARETO : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik, 4(2), 36–48.

Borjas, G. J. (2013). Labor economics (B. Gordon, Ed.; Sixth Edition). McGraw-Hill.

Cattaneo, A., Adukia, A., Brown, D. L., Christiaensen, L., Evans, D. K., Haakenstad, A., McMenomy, T., Partridge, M., Vaz, S., & Weiss, D. J. (2022). Economic and social development along the urban–rural continuum: New opportunities to inform policy. World Development, 157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105941

Dama, H. Y., Lapian, A. L. C., & Sumual, J. I. (2016). Pengaruh Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di Kota Manado (Tahun 2005-2014). Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Efisiensi, 16(3), 549–561.

Desripa, N., Raj, G., Leonita, A. A., Powell, C., Fredrick, F., Chou, F. I., Choandarta, H., & Lie, J. (2024). Dampak Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Kemiskinan Dan Kesejahteraan Sosial: Sebuah Analisis Kritis. Gudang Jurnal Multidisiplin Ilmu, 2(2), 7–12. https://doi.org/10.59435/gjmi.v2i2.275

Emako, E., Nuru, S., & Menza, M. (2022). The effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth in developing countries. Transnational Corporations Review, 14(4), 382–401. https://doi.org/10.1080/19186444.2022.2146967

Foster, V., Gorgulu, N., Straub, S., & Vagliasindi, M. (2023). The Impact of Infrastructure on Development Outcomes A Qualitative Review of Four Decades of Literature. Policy Research Working Paper, 10343. http://www.worldbank.org/prwp.

Goerres Achim, V. P. (2020). Global Political Demography The Politics of Population Change.

Harahap, Z. K., Harahap, Z., & Batubara, M. (2023). Pengaruh Investasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Tenaga Kerja dalam Perspektif Ekonomi Makro Syariah. SYARIKAT : Jurnal Rumpun Ekonomi Syariah, 6(2), 2023.

Hazita, F. P., Nugraha, D., Karina, D. R., Saputra, E. A., Zuldi, M. H., Gartika, R. Y., Wulandari, R., & Kharisma, B. (2022). Strategi Pengurangan Kemiskinan Melalui Penciptaan Lapangan Kerja Sektor Pariwisata di Kabupaten Garut. CR Journal, 8(2), 97–120.

Hidayat, A. W., & Hidayah, N. (2023). Determinants of Poverty in Surakarta. International Economics and Business Conference (IECON), 1(1), 73–82.

Imanto, R., Panorama, M., & Sumantri, R. (2020). Pengaruh Pengangguran dan Kemiskinan terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Sumatra Selatan. AL-INFAQ: Jurnal Ekonomi Islam, 11(2), 118–139.

Iswanto, D. (2015). Ketimpangan Pendapatan Antar Kabupaten/Kota dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Signifikan, 4(1), 41–66.

Jung, Y. C., McFarlane, A., & Das, A. (2021). The effect of minimum wages on consumption in Canada. Economic and Labour Relations Review, 32(1), 65–89. https://doi.org/10.1177/1035304620949950

Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. International Relations and Security Network, 3–190.

Koopman, E., & Wacker, K. M. (2023). Drivers of growth accelerations: What role for capital accumulation? World Development, 169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106297

Lee, N., & Sissons, P. (2016). Inclusive growth? The relationship between economic growth and poverty in British cities. A Environment and Planning, 48(11), 2317–2339. https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X16656000

Maipita, I. (2013). Simulasi Dampak Kenaikan Upah Minimum terhadap Tingkat Pendapatan dan Kemiskinan. Ekuitas: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Keuangan, 17(3), 391–410.

Malahayati, M., Masui, T., & Anggraeni, L. (2021). An assessment of the short-term impact of COVID-19 on economics and the environment: A case study of Indonesia. EconomiA, 22(3), 291–313. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2021.12.003

Mama, N. (2020). The Effect of Economic Growth on Unemployment in Sout Africa for The Period 2000-2019 A Review Of Okun’s Law (1962). Applied Economics, 1–39. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/353462871

Marisa. (2019). Analisis Determinan Tingkat Kemiskinan Di Indonesia. JIEP: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Pembangunan, 2(1), 76–89.

Mudana, I. W. E., & Purbadharmaja. (2024). Pengaruh Upah Minimum dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Ketimpangan Distribusi Pendapatan dan Kesejahteraan Masyarakat Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Bali. Jurnal Review Pendidikan dan Pengajaran, 7(3), 9601–9612.

Nasir, M. S., Wibowo, A. R., & Yansyah, D. (2021). The Determinants of Economic Growth: Empirical Study of 10 Asia-Pacific Countries. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(1), 149–160. https://doi.org/10.18752/sjie

Nasution, L. N., Novalina, A., & Ardela. (2021). Pertumbuhan Ekonomi & Tingkat Kemiskinan Indonesia Review.

Ningrum, E. P., Sumarno, M., Nursyamsi, S. E., & Siregar, N. (2024). Faktor Terkait Kesenjangan Ekonomi dan Kesejahteraan. Prive, 7(2), 116–126. http://ejurnal.unim.ac.id/index.php/prive

Ningrum, Rr. T. G., & Jainuddin. (2023). Influence of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDP) and Investment Against Poverty in East Kalimantan Provience. Journal Competency of Business, 7(2), 36–44.

Nugroho, A., Amir, H., Maududy, I., & Marlina, I. (2021). Poverty eradication programs in Indonesia: Progress, challenges and reforms. Journal of Policy Modeling, 43(6), 1204–1224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.05.002

O’Donnell, O. (2024). Health and health system effects on poverty: A narrative review of global evidence. Health Policy, 142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2024.105018

Ogujiuba, K., & Mngometulu, N. (2022). Does Social Investment Influence Poverty and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Cointegration Analysis? Economies, 10(9), 1–33. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10090226

Pane, S. G., Fikri, M., Saskia, R. A., Lubis, S. A., & Ramadhan, S. (2024). Analisis Permintaan dan Penawaran Agregat di Kala Pandemi Covid-19. MANTAP: Journal of Management Accounting, Tax and Production, 2(2), 758–767.

Pérez Pérez, J. (2020). The minimum wage in formal and informal sectors: Evidence from an inflation shock. World Development, 133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104999

Pernanda, C. G., & Ulhak, M. Z. (2023). Analisis Pengaruh Pengangguran dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Kemiskinan di Provinsi Sumatra Barat Tahun 2019-2023. Bertuah : Journal of Shariah and Islamic Economics, 4(2), 204–211.

Petrakos, G., Rontos, K., Vavoura, C., & Vavouras, I. (2023). The Impact of Recent Economic Crises on Income Inequality and the Risk of Poverty in Greece. Economies, 11(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11060166

Pongsirante, K. D., Walewangko, E. N., & Masloman, I. (2023). Pengaruh Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di Kabupaten Toraja Utara. Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Efisiensi, 23(7), 73–84.

Pramesti, F. D., & Utomo, Y. P. (2023). Analisis Determinan Tingkat Kemiskinan di Provinsi Sumatra Utara Tahun 2015-2020. JIS: Jurnal Ilmu Sosial, 3(2), 240–250.

Pratama, J. I. E., & Projo, N. W. K. (2024). Analisis Industri Manufaktur, Investasi, dan Pengangguran terhadap Kemiskinan di Kawasan Timur Indonesia. Jurnal Of Development Economic And Digitalization, 3(1), 17–30.

Pratomo, D. S., Syafitri, W., & Anindya, C. S. (2020). Expanding Middle Class in Indonesia. The Journal of Indonesia Sustainable Development Planning, 1(3), 307–312. https://doi.org/10.46456/jisdep.v1i3.103

Prityawati, E., Melyana, & Pamungkas, B. D. (2022). Pengaruh Jumlah Penduduk dan Pengangguran terhadap Jumlah Rumah Tangga Miskin (Studi Pada Masyarakat Kecamatan Utan). Jurnal Ekonomi & Bisnis, 10(2), 177–186. http://e-journallppmunsa.ac.id/index.php/jebPp.177-186

Putra, B. R. W., & Faridatussalam, S. R. (2023). Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Eks Karesidenan Surakarta Periode 2017-2021. Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business, 7(1), 584–590. https://doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v7i1.703

Putra, W. A., & Sukartini, N. M. (2025). Pengaruh Pendidikan, PDRB dan Tipe Pemerintah terhadap Kemiskinan. JIMEA, 9(1), 530–546.

Rahayu, Y. (2019). Pengaruh Upah Minimum Provinsi dan PDRB terhadap Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja di Provinsi Jambi. Jurnal Development, 7(2), 174–188.

Rahmi, J., & Riyanto. (2022). Dampak Upah Minimum terhadap Produktivitas Tenaga Kerja: Studi Kasus Industri Manufaktur Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi & Kebijakan Publik, 13(1), 1–12.

Ramandini, N., & Jaharuddin. (2024). Krisis Ekonomi dan Pemulihan Pasca Pandemi: Pembelajaran dari Resesi Global 2020 dan Strategi untuk Membangun Kembali. Jurnal Cendekia Ilmiah, 3(5), 4554–4565.

Rasid, A., Apriadi, O., Nurdiana, Pratama, I. N., Subandi, A., Darmansyah, & Irawansyah. (2024). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan Di Kabupaten Lombok Barat. Seminar Nasional LPPM UMMAT, 13, 725–733.

Rohmah, Z., & Sastiono, P. (2021). Pengaruh Kebijakan Peningkatan Upah Minimum terhadap Ketimpangan Upah (Studi Kasus Provinsi-Provinsi di Jawa). Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 21(2), 235–256. https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.2021.15

Rohmaniah, I., Wahyuningsih, D., Lutfiah, A., Alidani, M. S., & Desmawan, D. (2024). Analisis Pengaruh Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di Provinsi Banten Periode 2018-2022. INFORMATIKA, 12(2), 257–264.

Romdiati, H., & Kusumaningrum, D. (2021). Poverty during Covid-19 Pandemic in Indonesia: A Case Study in Java-Bali Region. Jurnal Kawistara, 11(3), 239–251. https://doi.org/10.22146/kawistara.v11i3.69438

Salsabila, N., Muna, N., Pradana, V. H., & Nurcahya, W. F. (2024). Analisis Efektivitas Bantuan Sosial (Bansos) dalam mengatasi Kemiskinan di Indonesia. Journal of Macroeconomics and Social Development, 1(4), 1–13. https://economics.pubmedia.id/index.php/jmsd

Santoso, E., & Anggraini, S. (2024). Disparitas Pembangunan Antar Wilayah di Indonesia: Model Data Panel. Cermin: Jurnal Penelitian, 8(2), 355–367.

Saputri, S. A. A., & Sitorus, A. (2025). Analisis Pengeluaran Pemerintah, Upah Minimum Provinsi dan Investasi PMDN terhadap Jumlah Penduduk Miskin di Pulau Sumatera. JIMEA | Jurnal Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, dan Akuntansi), 9(1), 251–267.

Sembiring, C., Masinambow, V. A. J., & Tumangkeng, S. Y. L. (2023). Pengaruh Jumlah Penduduk, Tingkat Pendidikan dan Tingkat Pengangguran terhadap Kemiskinan di Kota-kota Provinsi Jawa Barat. Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Efisiensi, 23(2), 25–36.

Sen, A. (1999). Development As Freedom. Oxford University Press.

Septianingsih, A. (2022). Pemodelan Data Panel Menggunakan Random Effect Model untuk Mengetahui Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Umur Harapan Hidup di Indonesia. Lebesgue: Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika, 3(3), 525–536. https://doi.org/10.46306/lb.v3i3

Shaban, A. (2023). Albert O. Hirschman (1915–2012): An Unorthodox Regional Scientist. Springer Nature, 2, 143–164. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-13440-1_7

Shinta, I. C., & Solikin, A. (2022). The Influence of Capital Efficiency and Education Spending on Indonesia’s Economic Growth. Business and Accounting Research (IJEBAR) Peer Reviewed-International Journal, 6(2), 817–830. https://jurnal.stie-aas.ac.id/index.php/IJEBAR

Sikandar, F., Erokhin, V., Shu, W. H., Rehman, S., & Ivolga, A. (2021). The impact of foreign capital inflows on agriculture development and poverty reduction: Panel data analysis for developing countries. Sustainability (Switzerland), 13(6). https://doi.org/10.3390/su13063242

Sirait, P. H. B. (2023). Analisis Pengaruh Belanja Modal, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Dan Inflasi. GROWTH, 9(1), 39–54.

Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94.

Suharti, S., Naufal, M. D., & Paiman, F. L. (2021). Inflation Effect on Unemployment in Indonesia: A Comparative Studies Between Sharia and Conventional Economic Perspectives. Jurnal Bisnis STRATEGI, 30(2), 127–138.

Syahri, D., & Gustiara, Y. (2020). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Kemiskinan Terhadap Ketimpangan Pendapatan di Sumatera Utara Periode 2015-2019. Journal of Trends Economics and Accounting Research, 1(1), 34–43.

Tobigo, H., Harafah, L. O. M., Rostin, & Rumbia, W. A. (2023). The Role of Investment on Social Welfare, Economic Growth, and Labor Absorption: Cases in Mineral Mining Areas. Journal for ReAttach Therapy and Developmental Diversities, 6(3), 483–497. https://jrtdd.com

Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2020). Economic development (Thirteenth). Pearson.

Tridiana, C., & Widyawati, D. (2018). Dampak Upah Minimum terhadap Probabilitas Keluar dari Sektor Formal. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 18(3), 119–139. https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.2018.19

Vaalavuo, M., & Sirniö, O. (2022). Jobs against poverty: a fixed-effects analysis on the link between gaining employment and exiting poverty in Europe. European Societies, 24(4), 431–462. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616696.2022.2088821

Wahyuni, D. P. E., Arisetyawan, K., Rachmawati, L., & Fisabilillah, L. W. P. (2024). Pengaruh Investasi Terhadap Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja pada Sektor Industri Besar di Kabupaten Sidoarjo. Jurnal Simki Economic, 7(1), 63–71. https://jiped.org/index.php/JSE

Wasi’aturohmah, B., Winanto, A. R., & Abas, S. (2025). Pengaruh Upah Minimum Provinsi dan Angkatan Kerja terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran di Provinsi Banten Tahun 2010-2023. E-Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana, 14(2), 136–145. https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/EEB/index

Yang, G., Zhou, C., & Zhang, J. (2023). Does industry convergence between agriculture and related sectors alleviate rural poverty: evidence from China. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 25(11), 12887–12914. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02594-y

Yukandri, Magnus, T. Z., Irawan, R., & Parhusip, J. (2024). Analisis Distribusi Rata-Rata dan Simpang Baku Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) Antar provinsi Menggunakan Python di Google Colab. Jurnal Ilmu Teknik dan Informatika, 4(2), 39–45. https://doi.org/10.51903/teknik

Zahara, L. E., & Octavia Emilia. (2021). Perkembangan PMDN dan PMA di Indonesia Tahun 2016-2020.

Downloads

Published

2025-04-08

How to Cite

Alfina Putri Satyatama. (2025). Analisis Pengaruh PDRB, UMP, Investasi, Pengangguran dan Pandemi Covid-19 Terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di Indonesia: Studi Data Panel 2015-2023. Inisiatif: Jurnal Ekonomi, Akuntansi Dan Manajemen, 4(2), 446–464. https://doi.org/10.30640/inisiatif.v4i2.4014